As the sun sets a little earlier and rises a little later, when leaves here in New England begin to turn color and the air conditioner doesn't get much use, it usually means two things: it's nearly autumn and it's time for my annual NFL predictions, prognostications and, since I usually write this around Labor Day weekend, procrastinations.
As the Red Sox dwindle in the Wild Card race (tonight's lineup in the 8th inning featured such "studs" as Chris Woodword, Joey "Willie Mays Hays" Gathright and some guy named Dusty Baker that looked like Sam Merlotte from "True Blood"), football season arrives this Thursday. It seems like just yesterday we were watching the Steelers play the Cardinals playing in the Super Bowl and thinking "why are they called the Cardinals when they are in Arizona and there isn't a Cardinal within 1000 miles of the state? I guess the same reason that the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers exist."
But enough of my needless yakking. Time for some semi-constructive yakking and blah-blahing as I look into my crystal ball and see the future of the 2009 NFL season... or perhaps I'm just looking at my backside and pulling this out of my ass. Same difference.
Again, I say this each year (and to verify this yet again I am cutting and pasting these four disclaimers from last year's blog post), please note the following:
1. If you use my picks to make bets, you're an idiot. I have an uncanny knack of making a lot of bad picks.
2. If you read that above sentence carefully, this should tell you how to bet on my picks if you're idiotic enough to do so. For those who are slow, the words are "against them".
3. I pick a "sleeper" every year and more often than not I am right. Note that the sleeper doesn't really win anything big but comes in much higher than the so-called "pros" project.
4. I just do this for fun. Like my baseball predictions this year (and last), don't take it too seriously.
So how did I do last year? After I right in my predictions I will put who I picked in the spot last year and whether I was right or wrong:
NFC East:
1. Philadelphia. Something tells me that after all of the Michael Vick "who let the dogs out" stuff ends, what should emerge will be a very good football team. Last year: Dallas (wrong)
2. Dallas. New stadium and cool video board. This has nothing to do with the fact that I am picking them second. I am picking them second because I really think they're going to do poorly and whenever I think this, they win. So there.. Last year: Philadelphia (right)
3. NY Giants. Throw HIM the damn ball! Who? Exactly. Last year: Giants (wrong)
4. Washington. As I say every year, as long as Daniel Snyder has anything to do with this team, I will pick them last. Last year: Washington (right)
NFC South:
1. New Orleans. I've picked them first two years in a row and for the last two years they have not responded. I don't care. Brees is good and I think that this is the year. Last year: New Orleans (wrong)
2. Carolina. I will admit, I know very little about this team nor do I care too much about them. Still, they usually find some way to win. Last year: Tampa Bay (wrong)
3. Atlanta. Matt Ryan surprised me last year and the Falcons made the playoffs. This year the Falcons' opponents are going to do what most BC student's don't: study. Sorry Matt. Last year: Carolina (wrong)
4. Tampa Bay. These are not your father's Buccaneers. Oh wait... they ARE your father's Buccaneers. Too bad for Tampa Bay. Last year: Atlanta (once again I picked the team to finish last to finish first).
NFC North:
1. Chicago. They pulled off a great trade with Denver and are flying under the radar because of the whole Favre BS. I like them this year. Last year: Green Bay (wrong)
2. Green Bay. Very quietly I think Green Bay is going to have a good year. Last year: Minnesota (wrong)
3. Minnesota. All of the focus is on Favre. I think he'll do OK however last year he had a full pre-season and fizzled after 12 games. This year he had half of a pre-season. Um, not good. Last year: Green Bay (wrong)
4. Detroit. Rebuilding since 1950... I really really really was going to pick Detroit to finish third. I just couldn't do it. Last year: Minnesota (wrong)
NFC West:
1. Arizona. Weak division and even though they turned it on last year, these ARE the Cardinals. Still, I guess the tallest midget in this division wins by default. Last year: Seattle (I picked Julius Jones to have a monster year. Whoops.).
2. San Francisco. Making the wild card! No, seriously. Last year: Arizona
3. Seattle. I really was on the fence picking them higher but then I did an analysis on this team and while I will give them a few more wins for not having a lame duck coach, the fact remains that this team sucks. Last year: St. Louis (wrong).
4. St. Louis. There is a song called "Meet me in St. Louis". This may be told to the #1 pick next year. Last year: San Francisco (wrong).
In case you think I just suck as predicting the NFC, you're half right. Here are my AFC predictions and last year's results:
AFC East:
1. Miami. Yes, I am a Patriots fan. And yes, I do not like the Seymour trade. However I did not pick Miami to finish ahead of New England after this. I just think that they lost too much depth on the defense and Miami has the fire to win, and go further than they did last year. Last year: NE (wrong)
2. New England. Well, they DO play the Bills and Jets. Last year: Jets (wrong)
3. NY Jets. Mark Sanchez wins Rookie of the Year. You heard it hear first. Unfortunately for Jets fans, Sanchez doesn't play defense. Last year: Buffalo (wrong)
4. Buffalo. I love the Bills' throwback unis. Hey, there's something good to say about them! I give the Bills three losses before T.O. does pushups in his driveway and demands a trade. Last year: Miami (wrong)
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis. Not only did I pick the Titans to finish last, but they were undefeated through 8 or 9 games last year. Wow. Well Indianapolis may have lost Harrison but Peyton has too much of an ego to let his brother take the headlines. Last year: Indy (wrong)
2. Tennessee. I hate these uniforms. Still, you have to respect that they play well. Still, the NFL has a ying and a yang and this year Indy gets the ying. Last year: Jax (wrong)
3. Houston. I said it last year and I'll say it again, I love the uniforms. Last year: Houston (right)
4. Jacksonville. [Plenty of good seats available. Last year: Tennessee (wrong, and they finished first)
AFC North:
1. Baltimore. Injuries help the Ravens overcome the Steelers. Last year: Cleveland, my sleeper pick last year (um, wrong)
2. Pittsburgh. See my comments above. You can't count the Steelers out until the lose someone big in week 5-6. Last year: Pittsburgh (wrong)
3. Cincinnati. They automatically do poorly for being this year's HBO "Hard Knocks" team however I don't think that this team needed that show to do poorly. Last year: Baltimore (wrong)
4. Cleveland. A year of rebuilding. Mangini gets more old Jets and Patriots to come over to help. Last year: Cincinnati (wrong)
AFC West: For some reason, I aced this division... and hence that's where my sleepers this year come in!
1. San Diego. Hard not to pick them with this division, so I will. Last year: San Diego (right)
2. Kansas City. SLEEPER #1! Cassel doesn't do great, but good enough. Team surprises a lot. I like the New England factor. Last year: Denver (right)
3. Oakland. SLEEPER #2!! They don't make the playoffs but they have nothing else to lose, so they will eek through a 6-10 or 7-9 year which, for Oakland, is pretty damn good. Last year: Oakland (right)
4. Denver. Thanksgiving in the Shanahan household will feature turkey, cranberry sauce, and a smug smile. McDaniel will be given a mulligan but Broncos fans will be yearning for Cutler. Last year: Kansas City (right).
Last year I picked the Draft Day order 1-5 rather than picking the playoffs but this time I will give you a bonus of both the playoff scenarios as well as Draft Day 1-5. Aren't you lucky? Wait, don't answer that!
NFC: Philly, New Orleans, Chicago, Arizona, San Francisco (WC), Carolina (WC).
AFC: Miami, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, New England (WC), Kansas City (WC).
Draft Day order:
1. Jacksonville
2. Cleveland
3. St. Louis
4. Tampa Bay
5. Detroit
Are you ready for some football??? Bring it on!!
Mike
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